EUR/USD could nudge closer to early February highs above 1.08 on hawkish ECB press conference – SocGen

EUR/USD built gains over 1.07. ECB forecast to raise rates 50 bps on Thursday and hawkish press conference by President Christine Lagarde could lift the pair above 1.08, economists at Société Générale report.

Fed repricing an opportunity for Euro bulls?

“It can be argued that a rebound in EGB yields and further tightening in US/EU spread could elicit further EUR/USD gains.”

“The ECB is unlikely to shift down the tightening pace on Thursday following events in the US. A 50 bps rate increase in the depo rate to 3% or 100 bps above the neutral rate is still highly likely.

“Guidance in the statement on rates for 2Q (meeting-by meeting?), debate about speeding up of APP QT and updated forecasts for core inflation and wages could be key for rate spreads and the Euro.”

“A hawkish press conference could again nudge EUR/USD closer to the highs of early February above 1.08.”