Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $3,050 amid hopes for Ukraine peace deal
- Gold price extends its downside to near $3,025 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Hope for a Ukraine peace deal undermines the safe haven assets like Gold.
- The Fed held rates steady but maintained projections for two cuts, which might cap the downside for Gold.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline to around $3,025 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal edges lower after reaching an all-time high on Thursday amid hopes for a Ukraine peace deal. However, potential rate cuts signaled by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and ongoing economic uncertainties might cap the upside for yellow metal.
On Sunday, Ukrainian and US officials held talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, resuming efforts to end three years of war as President Donald Trump pushes for a ceasefire. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated that the discussion over the weekend was “productive and focused.”
Umerov highlighted key points, including proposals to protect energy facilities and critical infrastructure. US and Russian delegates are expected to hold separate talks on Monday. The optimistic developments surrounding Russia and Ukraine's ceasefire dampen the gold demand, a traditional safe-haven currency.
On the other hand, the prospect of further rate reductions might help limit the non-yielding Gold’s losses. The Fed has held interest rates steady at meetings in January and March due to waiting for further progress on disinflation at the time. The US central bank sees a high degree of uncertainty in the economic outlook. Policymakers projected imply an average of two cuts in 2025, as updated last week.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that US President Donald Trump's policies, including import tariffs, may have slowed US economic growth and increased inflation. "Gold is not even acting as a safe-haven asset yet to retail investors because technically we're not in a recession. We are seeing the slowdown in the economy and that could very well create further uncertainty and more desire for safe-haven assets,” said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.